Market Insights and Trends

 

Global semiconductor Sales Hit $208.4B in Q3 2025, Surging 15.8% QoQ 

The global semiconductor industry recorded $208.4 billion in sales during the third quarter of 2025, marking a robust 15.8% increase from the previous quarter. September sales reached $69.5 billion, surging 25.1% compared to the $55.5 billion recorded in September 2024 and showing a 7.0% month-on-month growth from August 2025. 

 

Regionally, year-on-year September sales saw dramatic increases in Asia Pacific/All Other regions (47.9%) and the Americas (30.6%), with more moderate growth in China (15.0%) and Europe (6.0%), while Japan experienced a 10.2% decline. Month-to-month performance remained positive across most regions, led by the Americas (8.2%) and Asia Pacific/All Other (8.0%). SIA President and CEO John Neuffer attributed the strong performance to "increased demand across a range of semiconductor products, particularly memory and logic," noting that year-to-year growth was especially driven by sales into the Asia Pacific region and the Americas.  

 

 

 

Nexperia Supply Cut Shocks Chain: Auto MOSFET Lead Times Hit 12 Weeks, Prices May Surge 20%+

Global power semiconductor markets face supply-demand imbalance after Nexperia was hit by export controls. Diode and MOSFET prices are expected to rise 5-15% in Q4, with high-end automotive and industrial components potentially increasing over 20%.

 

Supply chain sources indicate automotive-grade MOSFET lead times have extended beyond 12 weeks since mid-October. Nexperia's Dongguan plant has significantly reduced output—critical since its mainland China facilities represent 80% of total capacity, and the Chinese market contributes about half of global sales.

 

The supply crisis coincides with soaring demand: AI servers require 3-5x more MOSFETs than conventional servers, while electric vehicles drive sharp growth in high-voltage power chips. If supply issues persist, shortages and price hikes could spread further.

 

 

 

Micron Warns: DRAM Supply Crunch in 2026, HBM Demand Triples

Micron Technology's Executive VP and Chief Business Officer, Sumit Sadana, recently projected that the DRAM market will face severe tightness through 2026, with supply-demand imbalance expected to worsen. He highlighted that AI applications are driving a sharp increase in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which requires about three times more wafer capacity than standard DRAM. Although Micron has shifted significant production capacity to HBM, rising costs for new fab construction and longer lead times for production ramp-up are intensifying overall supply constraints.  

Sadana noted that Micron has begun sampling its next-generation HBM4 product, which is expected to deliver better power efficiency than competing solutions. However, its shipment volume in 2026 will remain limited. Regarding the recent notable price increases for DDR4 DRAM, he acknowledged that Micron is unable to fully meet market demand due to capacity limitations. While the company plans to gradually phase out DDR4 production, it will slightly extend production runs at its U.S. facilities to support long-term customers—though output may still fall short of full production expectations.

 

 

Memory Price Forecast Update: DDR5 Contract Prices Revised Up to 18-23% Hike, Bullish Through 2026

According to the latest TrendForce research, server DRAM contract prices show strong momentum in Q4 2025. The estimated increase for standard DRAM has been raised from the initial 8-13% to 18-23%, with potential for further upward revision. Looking ahead to 2026, global server shipments are projected to grow about 4% year-on-year, while rising DRAM content per unit will drive bit demand beyond expectations, extending the supply shortage.

DDR5 contract prices are expected to maintain an upward trend throughout 2026, with the most significant increases likely in the first half. Meanwhile, HBM3e contract prices are forecast to shift to a year-on-year decline. The price gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is narrowing rapidly: while it exceeded fourfold in Q2 2025, DDR5 is set to deliver higher profit margins than HBM3e by Q1 2026.

As HBM3e and DDR5 compete for production capacity, suppliers may further increase Server DDR5 supply to secure profits once the margin structure flips. At the same time, with HBM3e demand remaining strong but prices stabilizing, manufacturers could adjust product mix pricing to balance profitability. Production allocation strategies between DDR5 and HBM will become a key factor influencing future market price trends.

 

 

Memory Market Enters "Super Price Hike Cycle," May Exceed $300B by 2027

According to Morgan Stanley's latest report, the global memory market is entering a multi-year "super cycle" driven by AI-induced supply-demand imbalance, with market scale expected to surpass $300 billion by 2027. Debon Securities analysis indicates this cycle differs from the previous two consumer electronics-driven cycles, being fueled by AI computing infrastructure demand which suggests greater sustainability.  

Industry data shows significant inventory levels among A-share listed Chinese memory module makers. Jiangbolong leads with approximately RMB 8.076 billion in inventory, followed by Demingli (RMB 4.643 billion) and Biwin Storage (RMB 4.382 billion). Wanrun Technology, Netac Technology, and Tongyou Technology maintain inventories between RMB 200-400 million. In this "inventory is king" market environment, upstream manufacturers are controlling shipments and raising prices, forcing module makers to strictly manage shipment pace, further driving up finished product prices.  

Industry sources report Micron has notified distributors of 20-30% price increases for memory products, while Samsung expects Q4 DRAM prices to rise 15-30% and NAND flash 5-10%. Adata Chairman Chen Libai stated the comprehensive shortage across all four major memory categories is unprecedented in his over 30-year career, predicting Q4 will mark the start of a major memory bull market with continued positive industry prospects next year. CFM Flash Market forecasts comprehensive price hikes across the memory market in Q4, driven by AI server expansion, replacement demand from new smartphone launches, and manufacturers' supply control strategies.

 

 

Samsung and SK Hynix Raise Q4 DRAM and NAND Prices by Up to 30%

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to increase DRAM and NAND flash prices by up to 30% in the fourth quarter. Investment banks project DRAM average selling prices will rise 25-26%. This trend is driven by massive investments in AI data centers from tech giants like Google and Microsoft. The HBM market is expected to surpass $100 billion by 2030, with next-generation HBM4 priced about 60% higher than current products.  

Industry analysts anticipate the DRAM and NAND price surge will continue through 2026, with Citigroup forecasting 37% year-on-year growth for DRAM and 39% for NAND. To counter shortages, multiple companies have begun stockpiling memory chips and signing long-term supply agreements.  

In spot markets, mainstream DDR4 chip prices rose 9.86% week-on-week, while 512Gb TLC wafers surged 27.96%. Q4 NAND contract prices are expected to increase 5-10% across the board, with standard DRAM projected to grow 8-13% quarter-on-quarter. When including HBM capacity impacts, overall DRAM price hikes could expand to 13-18%. Suppliers are taking proactive measures—SanDisk already raised prices by 10%, and Micron has suspended quotations to adjust production capacity.  

 

 

SK Hynix: HBM Shortage to Persist Until 2027, HBM4 Shipping This Quarter

SK Hynix has confirmed that HBM supply shortages will persist until 2027, with the company set to begin shipping its next-generation HBM4 this quarter. Driven by strong AI market growth, SK Hynix's HBM products are currently sold out, with prices remaining at profitable levels. Although HBM accounts for only 20% of the company's total DRAM shipments, it contributes over 50% of operating profit. 

The company notes that the current memory market has entered a "super cycle," with demand across all product lines exceeding expectations. Unlike the 2017-2018 cycle, the current demand is driven by AI transformation across a broader range of applications. Server shipments are expected to grow by about 10% in 2025, with both AI and general-purpose server demand increasing. 

On the supply side, HBM capacity expansion will continue to tighten general DRAM supply, a key factor supporting the extension of this memory super cycle.  

 

 

Samsung Cuts HBM3E Prices by 30% to Shake Up Market

Industry sources report that Samsung Electronics has reduced delivery prices for its 12-layer HBM3E products by approximately 30%, with current pricing around $200—significantly below SK Hynix's $300 for comparable products. This price adjustment is expected to pressure SK Hynix, whose 12-layer HBM3E products account for about 60% of total HBM revenue.  

Facing intensified competition, SK Hynix is driving company-wide profitability improvements, targeting operating profit of KRW 50 trillion next year. NH Investment & Securities has raised its 2025 DRAM average selling price growth forecast for the company from 12.6% to 19.2%, anticipating strong HBM4 growth.  

However, SK Hynix faces cost control challenges. Outsourcing HBM4's key "base die" component to TSMC results in costs six times higher than in-house production. Combined with HBM4's projected 30% cost increase over HBM3E and NVIDIA's pricing pressure, margin expansion may be limited.  

If SK Hynix's HBM3E prices decline at about 10% per quarter, its price gap with Samsung could disappear by end of next year. Samsung's "volume offensive" strategy—expanding supply despite short-term losses—further intensifies market competition.  

 

 

 

Global Top 8 Cloud Providers' 2025 Capex to Surpass $420B, Up 61% YoY

Driven by robust AI server demand, the world's eight largest cloud providers (Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu) will see capital expenditure exceed $420 billion in 2025—equivalent to their combined 2023-2024 spending—representing a 61% year-on-year surge, according to TrendForce. By 2026, total capex is projected to grow further to over $520 billion, maintaining a 24% annual growth rate, fueled by continuous scaling of AI rack solutions.  

Spending is shifting from direct-revenue equipment to core assets like servers and GPUs, with GB200/GB300 racks becoming a strategic focus. In custom silicon development, North America's top four CSPs are accelerating plans: Google and Broadcom's TPU v7p will gradually ramp in 2026, with shipments expected to grow over 40% annually; AWS will launch a liquid-cooled Trainium 2 by late 2025, and self-developed ASIC shipments are set to more than double next year, leading growth; Meta and Broadcom will mass-produce MTIA v2 in Q4 2025, with shipments doubling after HBM-equipped MTIA v3 debuts in 2026; though Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 via GUC, near-term volumes will remain limited.

 

AI Server Market Booms: 2026 Shipments to Jump Over 20%

Global AI server shipments are projected to grow over 20% year-on-year in 2026, capturing 17% of total server shipments, according to TrendForce. This growth is fueled by steady demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) and sovereign clouds, increased procurement of GPUs and ASICs, and expanding AI inference applications.  

 

For 2025, AI server shipment growth has been slightly revised down to around 24%. However, driven by new Blackwell solutions and high-value integrated systems like GB200/GB300, output value is expected to surge nearly 48% this year. By 2026, output value is forecast to grow over 30%, raising its revenue share to 74%.  

 

In the AI chip competitive landscape, NVIDIA is expected to maintain about 70% market share in 2025. But by 2026, growing adoption of self-developed chips by North American CSPs and Chinese companies is likely to make ASIC procurement growth outpace GPUs, potentially eroding NVIDIA's market share.  

Meanwhile, HBM consumption for high-end AI chips is projected to increase over 70% year-on-year in 2026, driven by adoption of chips like B300, GB300, R100/R200, and VR100/VR200, plus the transition of Google TPU and AWS Trainium to HBM3e generation.

 

 

 

AI Storage Demand Soars, High-Capacity Nearline SSD Accelerates HDD Replacement

According to the latest TrendForce research, AI inference applications are reshaping storage market dynamics. As HDD prices per GB rise from $0.012–0.013 to $0.015–0.016, their cost advantage is fading, prompting NAND Flash suppliers to accelerate development of high-capacity Nearline SSDs.  

 

Technologically, NAND Flash is advancing beyond 200 layers with 3D stacking, with active production of ultra-high-capacity models like 122TB and 245TB Nearline SSDs. By 2026, 2Tb QLC chips are expected to enter volume production, becoming key to cost reduction.  

 

In performance, SSDs deliver hundreds to thousands of times higher IOPS than HDDs in AI inference workloads, with microsecond-level latency far below HDD's millisecond-range delays. They also consume significantly less power per TB, enabling substantial long-term savings in data center electricity, cooling, and space costs.  

 

This shift creates new growth opportunities for NAND Flash suppliers. Manufacturers are shifting investment focus to high-density QLC products, addressing both current needs and future dominance in data center storage architecture. While HDDs may regain some cost competitiveness after completing HAMR technology upgrades, NAND Flash's faster cost decline and production flexibility are expected to continuously expand its market share in AI storage.

 

 

Global NAND Flash Supply Tightens, Prices Set to Rise Over 20% with Shortages Lasting Into Next Year

Cloud service providers (CSPs) and AI data center demand are driving simultaneous shortages across multiple storage categories. Adata Chairman Chen Libai notes that DDR4, DDR5, NAND Flash, and hard drives are all facing tight supply, with NAND Flash shortages expected to persist through the first half of next year.

 

Prices show clear upward momentum. As Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron phase out DDR4 production, DDR4 price increases are leading all categories. Korean brands are expected to raise new contract prices by 20-30%, while TrendForce projects NAND Flash prices will grow 5-10% quarter-on-quarter in Q4.

 

Inventory data reflects the supply strain. Chen revealed that upstream memory inventory in Q4 stands at just about two weeks—a rare low not seen in over a decade. Adata plans to increase its inventory from around NT$10+ billion to NT$20 billion to prepare for shortages.

 

Demand remains robust. Kioxia expects AI data centers to drive roughly 20% annual growth in NAND storage demand and aims to double production capacity at its Kitakami and Yokkaichi plants within five years. This recovery, fueled by AI infrastructure investment and traditional server replacement cycles, is expected to sustain market imbalance for several quarters ahead.

 

 

 

Intel CPU Prices Jump Up to 20%, Mid-Range Core i5/i3 Hit Hardest

Intel is adjusting prices for its 12th to 14th-gen processors, with international markets seeing increases of up to 20%. In South Korea, the Core i3-14100F rose 15%, while the i5-14600KF and i5-12400F climbed 13% and 11%, respectively. In Japan, the Core i5-14400 surged 20%, with the i5-14400F up 11%. Higher-end Core i7 and i9 series saw more modest increases of around 5%.

 

The move is seen as part of Intel's strategy to boost profit margins. With limited market acceptance of the new Arrow Lake processors, the company is instead raising prices on older mid-range CPUs built on the mature Intel 7 node. These core products are expected to deliver more immediate revenue gains.

 

 

 

MLCC Market Polarization Intensifies in Q4 2025, High-End Demand Defies Downturn

According to the latest TrendForce report, the global MLCC market faces significant uncertainty in Q4 2025. Orders from some smartphone brands have declined 12-15% quarter-on-quarter, while notebook demand has dropped 8-10%, with supply chains maintaining a conservative outlook on year-end consumer demand.

 

Market supply shows clear polarization: urgent orders for high-capacity components continue driven by AI servers and Apple's new models, with major suppliers like Murata, Taiyo Yuden, and Samsung maintaining stable shipments. Murata's September MLCC shipments exceeded 140 billion units, hitting a record high. Strong iPhone 17 series shipments prompted related suppliers to increase October orders by 5% month-on-month, though this remains insufficient to fully offset broader market declines.

 

In contrast, other manufacturers are adopting cautious inventory strategies amid weak smartphone and notebook demand, with order-to-shipment ratios declining noticeably. The report predicts that while high-end MLCC revenue will maintain steady growth, consumer-grade MLCC orders are unlikely to rebound against the trend. The industry will continue facing inventory and capacity adjustment pressures through Q1 2026.

 

 

KEMET Raises Tantalum Capacitor Prices Again, AI Demand Drives 20-30% Hike

KEMET, a subsidiary of Yageo Group, has announced its second price increase this year effective November 1, with tantalum capacitor prices rising 20-30%. The adjustment covers large-size, high-voltage polymer series including T520, T521, and T530, and extends from distributors to direct clients—primarily targeting high-end segments like data centers, AI servers, and high-frequency power supplies.

 

Tantalum capacitors contributed 22% to Yageo's revenue in the first half of the year, and this significant price hike is expected to substantially boost profitability. AI applications now account for 5-10% of Yageo's total revenue, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2-1.3 in the AI sector reflecting sustained strong demand. With KEMET holding over 40% of the global market share, Yageo continues to benefit from the component upgrade trend driven by AI.

 

 

 

Manufacturer Updates

ST

Weak Market Demand, Low-Voltage MOSFET Lead Times Extend to 26 Weeks

STMicroelectronics (ST) experienced overall weak demand this month, with relatively concentrated demand in the spot market primarily for power management ICs, EEPROM memory chips, and specific alternative part numbers. Demand for general-purpose MCUs and automotive-grade chips remained sluggish. In terms of lead times, the lead time for low-voltage MOSFETs has extended to 13-26 weeks, while lead times for diodes, transistors, and 32-bit MCUs remained stable at 12-16 weeks.

 

 

Renesas

Overall Demand Remains Weak, but Automotive Power Management Chips ISL3XX/ISL8XX Series Still in Short Supply

Renesas faced weak market demand this month, mainly focused on end-of-life and less popular models in industrial control and automotive sectors, such as the RSFX/HD64xx series. Although lead times from the original manufacturer have generally eased, supply remains tight for models like automotive power management chips ISL3XX/ISL8XX due to lead time and capacity issues.

 

 

TI

Product Prices Increase Across the Board, Early Stocking Recommended for Logic Chips

Influenced by multiple factors, Texas Instruments (TI) implemented overall product price increases in October. Market focus concentrated on SN74 logic chips, where spot market activity accelerated and prices rose significantly due to their suitability as substitutes. Although overall market volatility for TI is expected to stabilize following Arrow Electronics' removal from the BIS list and the resumption of its supplies, inventory depletion for its logic chips remains rapid. Customers are advised to prepare stocking plans in advance for production needs in the next approximately two months.

 

 

ADI

Projects 70% Gross Margin This Quarter, Invests Additional $1 Billion in Factory Expansion

At the end of September 2025, Analog Devices (ADI) announced the appointment of Narahari Ramanuja, former Senior Packaging Director at Intel, to lead its recently completed $1 billion expanded Beaverton factory. This move aims to strengthen management and support the nearly doubled internal production capacity. This is part of its strategy to build a 'hybrid manufacturing' model and enhance supply chain resilience. Concurrently, the company also announced investment plans in Ireland. Regarding the market, ADI's industrial business has become a growth driver. Despite short-term adjustments in the automotive sector, the company still expects 2025 to be a record year and confidently forecasts gross margins reaching 70% this quarter.

 

 

Broadcom

Strong Demand for Ethernet Chips Amid Persistent Shortages, Prices Continue to Soar

Driven by the AI wave, Broadcom, as a core supplier for data centers, is seeing extremely strong demand for its Ethernet chips in the spot market. This has led to continuously high prices and persistent shortages. Simultaneously, Broadcom's semiconductor business is facing significant order backlogs, highlighting the ongoing tension in market supply and demand.

 

 

Microchip

Lead Times for Multiple MCUs Extend to 30 Weeks, Supply Constraints Persist in Automotive and Industrial Sectors

Microchip continues to face supply challenges for some product models. The lead times for ATMEGA AVR and PIC18F series microcontrollers have extended to 20-30 weeks, primarily driven by surging demand from industrial automation and IoT. In the automotive sector, although overall shortages have eased, supply difficulties persist for high-end and electric vehicles due to their high chip demand for systems like ADAS and infotainment. Some automakers are still forced to reduce feature configurations to meet production targets.

 

 

onsemi

Faces Ongoing Order Pressure as Demand Weakens in Automotive and Industrial Segments

Amid the current overall weak demand for semiconductors, power, and automotive chips, onsemi continues to face order pressure, particularly in automotive and industrial applications.

 

 

Infineon

AI Server Power Emerges as New Growth Driver, Bets on 8-Inch SiC Technology in Automotive

Infineon's recent market performance shows a combination of short-term pressure and long-term growth. In the AI server power supply domain, the company is leveraging its full portfolio of silicon, silicon carbide, and gallium nitride power semiconductor technologies to collaborate with partners like NVIDIA on developing next-generation power architectures; this business has become a key growth engine. In automotive automation, Infineon is focusing significantly on silicon carbide technology and has begun providing customers with products based on 8-inch wafers. Meanwhile, demand for server voltage regulator chips like TDA21472 and IR3889 remains strong.

 

 

NXP

Launches New Product with Integrated TSN Switch, Lead Times for Legacy Products Extend

Overall market demand for NXP remains flat, with lead times for some traditional products showing a lengthening trend. Current business opportunities are primarily concentrated in areas requiring cost optimization. The company recently launched the new i.MX RT1180 crossover MCU, the industry's first processor to integrate a Gigabit Time-Sensitive Network switch and an EtherCAT slave controller. Concurrently, its Trimension ultra-wideband technology has been successfully implemented in the Jedsy X medical delivery drone, demonstrating its strategic focus on emerging application areas.

 

 

Xilinx

Demand for Mid-to-Low-End FPGAs Heats Up, High-End AI Acceleration Solutions Achieve 20% Performance Boost

The market for Xilinx this month exhibits a distinct polarization. In the mid-to-low-end segment, FPGAs such as the Spartan-7 and Artix-7 have experienced a significant rebound, driven by growing demand from embedded and IoT devices, making them popular cost-effective alternatives. In the high-end market, the Versal AI Core series continues to expand its penetration, dominating in North American data centers. Furthermore, optimized AI inference firmware has achieved a 20% performance increase, further solidifying the company's leadership position in the AI acceleration arena.

 

 

 

Spot Market Insights

Memory

eMMC

• eMMC prices across all brands have hit record highs. Following Sandisk's supply suspension, Samsung has once again halted quotations, exacerbating supply pressures in the market.
• Kioxia/Sandisk eMMC prices continue to climb, with active market transactions and strong bullish sentiment.
• MXIC: Prices are rising, and order lead times have extended to 6–8 weeks or longer, reflecting tight supply.
• Winbond: Flash pricing continues to trend upward, with scarce spot supply and widespread shortages across other brands, keeping spot market prices elevated.  

 

 

DDR4

• DDR4 and DDR3 series prices are generally rising, with quotation updates accelerating.
• 16GB modules across all brands have reached historic price highs, with supply remaining tight and a clear upward price trend.
• 8GB modules remain in widespread shortage, particularly for Samsung and Hynix. Hynix and Micron prices have surged significantly, with active market trading.
• Nanya/Samsung/Micron DDR4 8GB modules have entered a consolidation phase, with prices stabilizing temporarily, while Hynix continues to rise. Overall, original manufacturers are releasing limited supply.
• Micron and Taiwanese memory chips are seeing active transactions and continuous price increases. Shortages of DDR4 chips across all brands and capacities are expected to persist into the first quarter of next year.

 

 

LPDDR

• The LPDDR series faces overall supply shortages from original manufacturers, with only limited quantities available in the market. Micron prices are projected to increase by 40% in November.
• LPDDR4X 32Gb demand is robust, with significant price increases.
• LPDDR5/5X supply remains tight.

 

 

Server DDR4 & DDR5

• Server DDR4 prices continue to rise due to production discontinuation effects, remaining at elevated levels.
• Server DDR4 and DDR5 module prices are updating rapidly, with scarce supply.
• Server DDR5 has recently entered a consolidation phase, pausing its price rally. Although some stockpilers have begun releasing inventory, original manufacturer agents have not yet supplied large volumes, and market shortages persist.
• Some distributors are releasing PC memory module supplies, but prices remain high.

 

 

 

Storage

HDD

• Prices for the three major HDD brands continue to trend upward, with increases expected to persist until year-end.
• Low-capacity HDDs remain in severe shortage, with elevated prices. High-capacity drives are available but also priced at high levels.
• Demand for Seagate/Western Digital 16/20/24TB high-capacity drives has increased noticeably, with prices continuing to rise.
• Seagate's new official pricing has been released, with 20TB official and OEM prices up approximately 30% compared to early September.

 

 

 

CPU

Mobile CPU

• 13th Gen Mobile CPUs remain in short supply, with unstable order lead times and continued price increases.
• Market demand is concentrated on the N-series efficiency-core models, such as the N97, N95, and N100. These three models are in persistent shortage, with prices for the N97 and N100 already rising. 

 

 

PC CPU

• Prices for loose CPUs have increased across the board, with some regions seeing hikes of up to 20%.
• Intel models such as the i7-14700 and i7-13700 are in relatively tight supply.

 

 

Server CPU

• High-end server CPUs from Intel and AMD are experiencing price increases and shortages.
• Market demand is concentrated on 3rd and 4th generation product lines, with prices beginning to rise. Models such as the 4410Y, 4310, 5317, 6346, and 6354 are in short supply.

 

 

 

 

GPU

 

 

 

MCU市场动态

 

 

 

NIC

• The MCX623105AN-VDAT is in severe shortage, with futures lead times as long as 16–26 weeks.

• Demand for Broadcom RAID cards is increasing, mainly for models such as the 9361-8I 1GB/2GB and 9560-8I/16I. However, shortages are significant, and order lead times extend to 20–50 weeks.