Market Insights and Trends

 

Leading Foundries Raise Prices, Signaling Potential "Chipflation" 

The global foundry market has recently initiated a broad price adjustment. TSMC plans to increase its quotes for 3nm and more advanced processes for four consecutive years starting in 2026, with the first-year increase estimated between 3% and 10%. Its capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to reach $40-42 billion, potentially rising to a historic high of $42-45 billion in 2026.

 

Meanwhile, SMIC has implemented a price increase of approximately 10% for some of its capacity. This move is supported by high capacity utilization rates: SMIC's Q3 utilization climbed to 95.8%, up 3.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Hua Hong's overall utilization in the same period reached an even higher 109.5%. Its first 12-inch fab, with a designed capacity of 95,000 wafers per month, consistently achieves an actual output exceeding 100,000 wafers per month.

 

This wave of price hikes, driven by AI demand and spreading from advanced to mature processes, is reshaping the industry landscape. Industry analysts note that semiconductor manufacturing is exhibiting characteristics of a "seller's market," with leading players gaining stronger pricing power. This trend may further suppress demand for traditional consumer electronics like PCs and smartphones, while AI-related demand is expected to remain robust. According to Semiconductor Intelligence estimates, global semiconductor manufacturing capital expenditure in 2025 will be approximately $160 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3%.  

 

 

ADI Raises Prices Up to 30% in 2026, Analog Chip Market in Upturn

Analog Devices (ADI) has formally notified customers of a new round of price increases across its entire product line, effective February 1, 2026. The average increase is around 15%, with prices for nearly a thousand military-grade, high-reliability products expected to rise by up to 30%. The hikes are driven by continued inflationary pressures from raw materials, labor, energy, and logistics. The new prices will apply to all unshipped orders.

 

Following Texas Instruments' (TI) price increase in Q3 (covering over 60,000 models with hikes of 10%-30% or more), ADI's move further confirms the analog chip industry is entering a new upcycle. Global semiconductor revenue reached a record high of $216.3 billion in Q3 2025, up 14.5% quarter-over-quarter. ADI's own Q4 2025 results show recovery, with revenue surging 26% year-over-year to $3.076 billion and earnings per share growing 35% to $2.26, both exceeding market expectations. The CEO noted growth across all industrial sectors, driven by cyclical improvements and structural trends like AI and automation.

 

The price increases are expected to affect downstream high-value sectors including automotive electronics, industrial control, premium consumer electronics, communications infrastructure, and data centers. AI data centers are a key demand driver, with power management chips for a single AI server cabinet costing $12,000 to $15,000. The hikes may raise the BOM cost for new energy vehicles and make cost reduction more difficult for industrial control and medical equipment. Some downstream companies have begun emergency stockpiling or are negotiating long-term supply agreements, while domestic substitution efforts are also accelerating.

 

 

 

Global Memory Giants Ramp Up Capacity; 2026 DRAM Market Seen at $170B

In response to strong AI-driven demand and persistent market shortages, major global memory chip manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion. Industry research firm Omdia predicts that the global DRAM market will reach $170 billion by 2026, significantly higher than the $100 billion in 2024. Samsung Electronics is increasing the utilization of its DRAM and NAND production lines and expanding HBM output. Simultaneously, Samsung has resumed construction on its Pyeongtaek 5 (P5) fab, which is expected to begin mass production in 2028.

SK Hynix is also actively advancing its capacity construction. Its new M15X factory in Cheongju is ready to commence operations, focusing on DRAM and AI-related memory chips. The company is striving to complete the first wafer fab at its Yongin Semiconductor Cluster, with a scale equivalent to six M15X facilities, ahead of its original 2027 schedule.

Given the lengthy cycle of building new in-house capacity, some international giants are turning to existing foundries for faster output. Following SanDisk, industry reports indicate that Micron has also quietly approached Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) to discuss utilizing idle capacity at its new Tongluo fab. This new facility has a maximum designed monthly capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers, but current equipment installation is only around 20%, offering significant potential for rapid expansion.

Micron previously announced an increase in its fiscal year 2026 capital expenditure plan from $18 billion to $20 billion to address the supply-demand imbalance. The company acknowledged that it can currently only meet approximately 50% to two-thirds of its key customers' needs. PSMC confirmed it is in talks with multiple major players for cooperation. This scramble for "ready-to-deploy capacity" reflects the current severe shortage of memory chips.

 

 

SK Hynix Warns: DRAM Shortage Could Last Until 2028

SK Hynix's internal analysis report indicates that the tight supply of general-purpose DRAM is expected to persist until 2028. The primary reason is the rapid growth in demand from AI servers, which is absorbing a significant portion of memory production capacity.

The report forecasts that the market share of server DRAM will rise sharply from 38% in 2025 to 53% by 2030. Meanwhile, the adoption of AI PCs is set to further intensify demand pressure, with their market share projected to grow from 38% in 2025 to 55% in 2026.

 

On the supply side, capacity expansion faces structural constraints. Building a new wafer fab and achieving full capacity ramp-up takes several years, with new capacity expected to come online only by 2028. Even converting existing production lines requires a lengthy cycle. Given that supplier inventories are already at low levels, supply-demand imbalances are anticipated to tighten further.

SK Hynix stated that its new DRAM capacity will be concentrated on advanced memory solutions for data center customers rather than general-purpose DRAM. The company plans to allocate 20 low-NA EUV lithography systems over the next two years for the production of HBM and advanced memory products.

A similar trend is observed in the NAND flash market. UBS predicts that in Q4 2025, DDR contract prices will increase by 35% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND flash prices will rise by 20%. For Q1 2026, further quarterly increases of 30% for DRAM and 20% for NAND flash are anticipated.

The company has completed construction of its M15X factory, which focuses on HBM production and is set to achieve full-scale mass production in 2026. Additionally, it plans to commence construction of the Yongin wafer fab in the first half of 2027. This prolonged expectation of tight supply suggests that general-purpose DRAM may become a relatively scarce resource for an extended period, exerting continuous "chipflation" pressure on markets such as PCs and gaming consoles.

 

 

Taiwanese Firm Warns DRAM Shortage to Last Until 2027

Nick Lu, Chairman of Etron Technology, a Taiwan-based memory company, recently stated that the core issue facing the current DRAM market is "no new capacity." He indicated that strong demand driven by artificial intelligence will cause the shortage to persist. He estimates that DRAM supply will remain in a state of short supply at least until the first half of 2027, with a shortage in 2026 now essentially confirmed.

Lu explained that the construction cycle for DRAM wafer fabs is typically longer than that for logic fabs, often taking over six years from groundbreaking to making a substantial contribution to revenue. Additionally, the production of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) further exacerbates the supply pressure on general-purpose DRAM, as producing one HBM module consumes approximately 20 traditional DRAM chips.

Under extreme supply-demand imbalance, market control has shifted entirely to the suppliers. Lu revealed that some suppliers have adopted a "bid first, allocate later" model, requiring customers to pre-submit demand forecasts for the upcoming quarter. Manufacturers then allocate quantities based on their capacity, and customers not on the pre-order list generally cannot secure supply.

Regarding the end market, Lu believes this will lead to a tripartite polarization: high-end applications will procure resources at any cost; the mainstream market will bear reasonable price increases; and the low-end market may be forced to downgrade specifications or exit. This structural shift is also reflected in Etron's own performance, with the company's November revenue reaching NT$503 million, a significant 120% year-over-year increase. Lu emphasized that the era of "memory always being cheap" has ended.

 

 

Memory Chip Price Rises May Peak in Mid-2027, HBM Demand Soars

Several Wall Street institutions recently forecast that the AI-driven boom cycle in the memory chip market will continue, but the upward price trend for general-purpose memory chips may reach a turning point in about two years. Bank of America predicts the prosperity will last at least through 2026, while brokerage Rosenblatt anticipates that demand for DRAM and NAND flash will continue to outpace supply until 2027. Investment bank Baird provides a more specific prediction, stating that the price increases for DRAM and NAND flash will peak around mid-2027 before starting to decline.

Meanwhile, the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market is widely expected to maintain rapid growth. Recently, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have raised their 2026 supply prices for mainstream HBM3E by nearly 20%. This price adjustment is primarily driven by stronger-than-expected demand growth from multiple sources. Key factors include NVIDIA's approval to export H200 AI accelerator chips to China. Each H200 requires six stacks of HBM3E, and NVIDIA's initial order is estimated to involve 40,000 to 80,000 chips, with related demand concentrated for release in 2026. Additionally, Google's seventh-generation TPU and Amazon's Trainium3, both scheduled for launch in 2026, feature HBM capacity per chip that is 20%-30% higher than their predecessors.

On the supply side, existing HBM3E capacity is insufficient to meet the surge in orders. Analysts predict that HBM3E will still account for approximately 45% of HBM market revenue in 2026, and its tight supply is expected to persist at least until the third quarter of that year. The supply price for the next-generation HBM4 is projected to be over 50% higher than current HBM3E prices.

Industry leaders are highly optimistic about the market outlook. Micron has disclosed that its full-year HBM capacity for 2026 is already sold out and projects the total addressable HBM market to reach $100 billion by 2028, up from $35 billion in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of around 40%. To support this growth, Micron plans to invest up to $20 billion in capital expenditure in 2026. Currently, the global HBM market is highly concentrated by revenue, with SK Hynix leading at 57%, followed by Samsung Electronics at 22% and Micron at 21%.  

 

 

DDR5 Spot Price Surges 460% YoY; HBM and General DRAM Price Gap Rapidly Narrows

Morgan Stanley released a report stating that generative AI is shifting the industry focus from a "chip design race" to a "battle for physical production capacity." The report predicts that the cloud AI accelerator market will reach $312 billion by 2026 and is expected to hit $550 billion by 2029, achieving a four-year compound annual growth rate of 36%.

 

Driven by strong AI demand, the supply chain is rapidly transitioning from "oversupply" to "extremely tight." The report specifically notes that DDR5 spot prices have seen annual increases as high as 460%. This extreme supply-demand situation has significantly enhanced the pricing power of manufacturers with production capabilities.

 

Market supply and demand dynamics are also reflected in specific product prices. TrendForce's survey shows that due to cloud service providers expanding server inventories, the quarter-over-quarter increase in server DDR5 contract prices in Q4 2025 far exceeded expectations. While HBM3e prices were previously 4-5 times higher than server DDR5, the price gap is expected to narrow to 1-2 times by the end of 2026.

 

From a market share perspective, Counterpoint's Q3 report indicates that the global DRAM market grew 26% quarter-over-quarter. Among the players, SK Hynix maintained the top position with a 34% market share, while Samsung Electronics held 33%. In the HBM segment, SK Hynix leads with a 57% share; Samsung Electronics increased its share from 15% in the previous quarter to 22%, surpassing Micron (21%) to become second.Meanwhile, reduced production of traditional DRAM by major suppliers created opportunities for others, such as Nanya Technology, whose market share increased from 1% to 2%.

 

In summary, the explosive demand driven by AI is reshaping the semiconductor industry's value chain, making manufacturing capacity the most critical scarce resource and pushing the industry into a new cycle dominated by capacity and sustained price increases.

 

 

Samsung Slows DDR4 Phase-Out and Plans NCNR Long-Term Contracts

As DDR4 market prices surge sharply due to supply reduction, Samsung Electronics has adjusted its capacity strategy, deciding to slow down the planned phase-out of some DDR4 capacity originally set for the end of 2025. Currently, the spot price for DDR4 16Gb has soared to approximately $60, reaching a new high.

Samsung plans to sign long-term supply contracts known as "NCNR" (Non-Cancellable, Non-Returnable) with specific server customers in the first quarter of 2026. Reports suggest that the company may set the contract price for DDR4 16Gb products above $20, significantly lower than the current spot price, though the contracts may include provisions for future price adjustments.

This strategic adjustment is partly driven by profit considerations. Samsung is contemplating reallocating some HBM3E capacity to DDR5 RDIMM modules to better focus on the next-generation HBM4 competition, while retaining its profitable mature DDR4 capacity. Its legacy-process DDR4 products are expected to remain available at least until the end of 2026, primarily targeting specific applications such as automotive or Samsung's own branded products.

Overall, the limited capacity released by Samsung is unlikely to alleviate the severe supply shortage in the broader market. DDR4 is expected to remain in tight supply throughout 2026, with further room for price increases. This widespread capacity crunch is also prompting other major international manufacturers to explore alternative solutions. For example, companies like Micron are in discussions with Powerchip, which has available fab space, to collaborate on utilizing Powerchip's new Tongluo fab (currently equipped for about 8,000 wafers per month, with a maximum designed capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers per month) to rapidly ramp up output.

 

 

OpenAI and NVIDIA Demand Shock Worsens Memory Shortage

OpenAI recently reached agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix, securing about 40% of the global DRAM supply, equivalent to 57% of the combined output of the top three memory manufacturers. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that OpenAI needs approximately 900,000 DRAM wafers per month to support its advanced AI models. The supply shortage concerns triggered by this move have quickly impacted downstream hardware prices.

Consumer memory prices have experienced severe volatility. A 32GB DDR5 memory kit increased 156% in three weeks to $330. In Q4, overall DDR4 and DDR5 prices rose 2 to 3 times. During the same period, NAND flash contract prices generally increased by 20% to 60%. The GPU market is also affected, with AMD Radeon 8GB models expected to see a price hike of about $20 and 16GB models potentially increasing by $85. Some full-system orders have been delayed until December 2026.

Simultaneously, NVIDIA is purchasing LPDDR5X memory in large quantities for its AI chips. Industry analysis firm Counterpoint Research points out that because a single AI server requires far more memory chips than a smartphone, NVIDIA's demand volume rivals that of a major smartphone maker. This has created sudden pressure that the existing supply chain is struggling to absorb. The firm warns that the resulting supply-demand imbalance could cause memory prices to double within the next two years.

Analysis by consulting firm Bain & Company indicates that a 20% to 30% increase in memory chip prices could ultimately raise manufacturing costs for smartphones, PCs, and other consumer electronics by 5% to 10%. This supply crunch highlights that competition for core hardware resources in the AI industry has entered a critical phase. It is expected that consumer hardware upgrade costs will continue to rise over the next year, making supply chain stability a major industry focus.

 

 

 

DRAM Inventory Drops to 8-9 Weeks, Shortage Seen Into 2027

The current memory market is facing severe supply constraints. Reports indicate that DRAM inventory for PCs and mobile devices can only last about 9 weeks, while SSD inventory is even tighter at just 8 weeks. Server DDR memory inventory is sufficient for only 11 weeks. Specifically for notebook manufacturers, their NAND flash and SSD inventory is similarly around 8 weeks, and some manufacturers' stock may be depleted by March next year. This situation is far below the healthy inventory levels of around 18 weeks for PC makers and 12 weeks for suppliers recorded last October.

The rapid depletion of inventory has driven significant price increases. In Q4 this year, DDR contract prices rose 35% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND flash contract prices increased by 20%. Looking ahead, DDR contract pricing is expected to rise by another 30% in Q1 2026, with NAND prices projected to increase by an additional 20%.

This round of supply shortage is characterized by its long-term nature. Reports forecast that the global DRAM supply shortage is expected to persist until Q1 2027, while the NAND flash shortage will continue until Q3 2026. The core driver is rapid demand growth, with DDR demand surging by 20.7%, far outpacing supply growth.

The supply crunch is forcing downstream manufacturers to take emergency measures. To prioritize supply for AI infrastructure, consumer-end capacity is being squeezed. Some notebook manufacturers are considering reducing pre-installed SSD capacities in future new models and phasing out existing product models earlier. Meanwhile, the market landscape is evolving, with SK Hynix projected to maintain a dominant share of about 70% in the future HBM4 market.

 

 

Module Makers' NAND Inventory Low Amid 50% Monthly Price Surge

Supply chain sources indicate that Micron Technology's recent NAND flash quotes surged nearly 50% in a single month. Sharp price volatility is forcing downstream memory module manufacturers to switch to floating-price quotes for orders.

Currently, NAND inventory at multiple module manufacturers is expected to last only through Q1 2026. Industry warnings suggest that from March 2026 onward, some manufacturers may face situations where they have no stock to deliver. As Q2 progresses, material shortages are expected to become widespread. Even leading module makers mostly have inventory sufficient only for first-half demand, with market supply anticipated to be tighter in the second half of the year than it is currently.

Facing this supply situation, downstream PC and laptop manufacturers have begun redesigning product specifications to manage cost pressures. To maintain final product prices, some are considering lowering standard SSD capacities in their 2026 new models—for example, reducing a planned 512GB specification to 256GB, or downgrading a 1TB option to 512GB.

Industry veterans describe this as "the most challenging stockpiling situation in nearly a decade" and predict a potential "no stock to deliver" scenario after Q2 2026. Industry analysis suggests that original manufacturers' current strategy leans toward controlling output and maintaining tight supply to support stable market prices.

 

 

Storage Market Sees "Shrinking Volume, Soaring Prices" in Q4

The spot storage market in Q4 exhibited the characteristic of "shrinking volume and soaring prices," marked by tight supply and sharp price increases. Among these, channel SSD prices generally rose by 150%, with some capacity products experiencing increases of over two times. Spot prices for NAND resources of 512Gb and higher capacities generally accumulated quarter-over-quarter increases exceeding 100%.

Supply shortages have spread from the consumer segment to multiple areas. Supply of consumer-grade DDR4 from major DRAM original manufacturers is nearly at a standstill. Mobile memory supply is extremely tight, with the total cost for certain original manufacturers' LPDDR4X resources reaching as high as approximately $0.8/GB.

The server market has become the core driver of price hikes. Against the backdrop of accelerating AI data center construction, the supply fulfillment rate for original manufacturers' server DRAM remains low. Server DRAM prices rose significantly in Q4, and further increases of over 40% are forecast for Q1.

Looking ahead to Q1 2026, the upward price trend is expected to continue. CFM Flash Market predicts price increases for Mobile eMMC/UFS will reach 25%–30%, and LPDDR4X/5X may rise 30%–35%. For the PC segment, DDR5/LPDDR5X is projected to increase 30%–35%, while client SSDs (cSSD) are expected to rise 25%–30%. The report further states that the average cost of embedded DRAM for smartphones in 2026 is forecast to double compared to 2025, and the average cost of embedded NAND Flash is also projected to increase by over 60% YoY.

 

Cost pressures are impacting downstream industries. To balance costs, brand owners have adopted strategies such as reducing specifications (e.g., low-end smartphones in 2026 may revert to 4GB DRAM as the mainstream) and delaying upgrades. Industry analysis suggests this upcycle is expected to last at least until the end of 2026.

 

 

Kingston Warns of NAND Price Soaring 246% YoY; SSD & HDD Prices Face Widespread Pressure

Kingston recently warned that memory prices will continue to rise. The company revealed that in 2025, NAND Flash prices have surged by a cumulative 246%, with 70% of this increase concentrated in the last 60 days. The shortage issue is expected to worsen further within the next 30 days, which will directly drive up the prices of solid-state drives.

Since NAND Flash accounts for 90% of the material cost of traditional SSDs, its volatility is quickly being passed on to end products. Additionally, traditional hard disk drives are also affected, with HDD prices rising approximately 4% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025—the largest single-quarter increase in the past eight quarters. TrendForce expects the average contract price for enterprise SSDs to increase by over 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q4. For the end market, institutions predict that memory prices will rise significantly in Q1 2026, potentially forcing industries such as smartphones and laptops to either increase product prices or reduce configuration specifications.

Companies in the industry chain have also expressed optimistic expectations for the future. Longsys believes that major original manufacturers are cautious about capacity expansion and will contribute limited incremental capacity in 2026. GigaDevice anticipates that the niche DRAM market will remain tight for about two years. Its niche DRAM business revenue is expected to grow 50% year-over-year in 2025 and may surpass MCUs to become the company's second-largest product line.

 

 

Micron: Extends Order Lock-in and Exits Consumer Storage Market

To address the global memory chip supply shortage and the structural shifts driven by AI data centers, Micron Technology recently announced a new order policy and adjusted its business strategy. The new policy stipulates that, effective January 1, 2026, the change lock-in period for all orders will be extended from the current 30 days to 90 days. These orders will be non-cancellable, non-modifiable in price, and non-reschedulable. This policy applies to all orders placed before December 31, 2026, including orders placed in 2025 with delivery dates in 2026. Customers requesting early delivery may be subject to additional fees.

This policy adjustment comes amid an intensifying supply shortage in the memory chip market. Supply chain sources note that Micron's NAND flash quotes recently surged nearly 50% in a single month. Some manufacturers' NAND inventory is expected to last only through Q1 2026, potentially leading to stockouts starting in March, with shortages likely becoming more widespread after Q2.

Simultaneously, Micron officially announced its complete exit from the 29-year-old Crucial consumer storage business. Related products will continue shipping until the end of February 2026, after which supplies to consumer channels will cease. This move aims to reallocate 3D NAND and DRAM capacity and investment toward high-demand areas such as enterprise SSDs, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and server-grade memory modules to support the growth of AI data centers.

Market analysts believe Micron's exit will exacerbate supply tightness and price increases in the consumer market. Data shows that in November 2025, the price for general-purpose PC DDR4 8Gb reached $8.10, a 500% increase from $1.35 in January. During the same period, NAND (128Gb) prices rose from $2.18 to $5.19, a 138% increase. With fewer suppliers and capacity increasingly shifting toward AI applications, shortages and price pressures in the consumer market are expected to persist.

 

 

Micron's 2026 Full-Year HBM Capacity Already Sold Out

Micron executives have disclosed that supply agreements for price and volume of its full-year 2026 High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) have been finalized with customers, and its production capacity is entirely sold out. The company projects that the total addressable market for HBM will surge to $100 billion by 2028, up significantly from $35 billion in 2025. Currently, Micron can only meet about 50% to two-thirds of the demand from its key customers, and supply tightness is expected to persist beyond 2026.

Based on strong performance, Micron has provided guidance for the next quarter far exceeding market expectations, forecasting revenue to reach $18.7 billion. Additionally, the company has revised upward its industry demand forecast for 2026, expecting DRAM demand growth to be in the low 20% range and NAND demand growth around 17%-19%. The company anticipates that its own DRAM and NAND shipment volume will both grow approximately 20% year-over-year in the 2026 calendar year.

 

 

Data Center Demand Drives HDD Prices Up 4% in Q4

Driven by strong demand from large-scale data centers, especially for AI, the hard disk drive market is facing significant supply pressure and price increases. Industry reports show that HDD contract prices in Q4 2025 surged by approximately 4% quarter-over-quarter, marking the highest single-quarter increase in nearly eight quarters. Suppliers anticipate that upward price pressure will continue, with delivery lead times for some products extending to as long as two years.

This price increase is primarily driven by two major demand factors. First, demand for high-capacity nearline HDDs continues to grow in the US data center sector, as expanding AI workloads push up data storage needs. Second, China's PC market, driven by government procurement policies favoring domestic CPUs and operating systems, has unexpectedly boosted local PC production and HDD demand.

Currently, HDD manufacturers are operating at high capacity utilization rates but still cannot fully keep up with the demand growth from cloud service providers. This trend is interconnected with the supply shortages of high-bandwidth memory and enterprise DRAM. HDD manufacturing costs are also affected by the overall rise in memory prices.

Suppliers indirectly indicate that current demand is already expected to exceed supply, and by 2026, this situation could become mainstream and further impact the retail market.

 

 

Samsung Denies Halting SATA SSD Production

In response to market rumors about Samsung Electronics discontinuing consumer-grade SATA solid-state drives (SSDs), the company has officially issued a denial. As one of the world's largest NAND flash producers, Samsung states that consumer demand for SATA SSDs remains strong.

Currently, the storage supply chain faces significant challenges. The rapid demand from the artificial intelligence industry has led to ongoing supply shortages in DRAM and NAND flash. These shortages are not only affecting high-performance GDDR and LPDDR products but also limiting the supply of consumer-grade storage devices, which may eventually force PC manufacturers to raise product prices.

Despite the denial, the industry is indeed shifting toward higher-performance NVMe products. NVMe SSDs, which offer significantly faster transfer speeds than traditional SATA interfaces, are increasingly being adopted in high-performance PCs, servers, and data centers. Unlike Micron's earlier strategy of exiting its consumer Crucial brand, the market is closely watching whether Samsung will implement longer-term structural adjustments.

In the enterprise market, SATA SSDs (such as Samsung's PM883 and SM883 series) are also gradually losing ground in servers as the industry accelerates its transition to NVMe storage. Analysts estimate that it may take several more months for retail market supply to return to normal levels.

 

 

 

 

Intel Faces CPU Delivery Bottlenecks Due to Tight Wafer Supply

Due to a shortage of critical wafers, Intel has acknowledged that it cannot fully meet market demand for some of its new client and data center processors. The company stated that if it could secure more wafers, shipments of its Core Ultra 200 series Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake processors, manufactured using TSMC's N3B process, could be significantly increased. Part of the supply tightness stems from Intel's initially conservative ordering approach with its foundry partner.

 

Currently, demand for new processors in the client market is exceptionally strong, exceeding Intel's existing supply capacity. One constraint is that Intel has also outsourced the chipset production for these processor families to TSMC, whose advanced fabs are typically operating at full capacity, making it difficult for Intel to quickly obtain additional output. The company anticipates supply to improve in Q4 this year and beyond, but it will still be insufficient to fully meet the backlog of demand.

 

On the data center side, the Xeon 6 'Granite Rapids' processor, built using Intel's own Intel 3 process, also faces supply challenges. While Intel has invested in upgrading its fabs, most production lines are still based on older nodes like Intel 7 and cannot fully meet the production requirements for chips at more advanced nodes.

 

For now, the supply of LPDDR5X memory used in Lunar Lake processor packaging is sufficient and is not expected to drive up costs in the short term. However, against a backdrop of high global DRAM prices, whether Intel will adjust the pricing of its client CPUs remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 

Memory Price Surge Hits GPUs, May Raise Costs by $40

Driven by demand from AI data centers, DRAM capacity is tight and price increases are spreading from memory modules to the graphics card segment. SK Hynix stated that its DRAM, NAND, and HBM capacity for next year is already sold out. Price-wise, popular 32GB DDR5-6000 memory kits have doubled from around $125 in mid-September to over $250; 64GB kits have soared from about $200 at the start of the year to nearly $500.

 

Pressure is extending to GPU memory. The price of GDDR6 has increased by 30% from around $2.50 per GB earlier this year to approximately $3.30 per GB. Industry analysis suggests this could raise the material cost of a GPU with 16GB of GDDR6 by about $10, ultimately leading to a retail price increase of $25 to $40. If the trend worsens—for example, if GDDR prices rise by 50%—the retail price of cards like the RTX 5070 could increase by around $50, reaching about $600. If prices double, mainstream graphics card price hikes could reach $100.

 

Cost changes may even impact new product planning. If memory prices for a model like the rumored RTX 5070 Super with 18GB of GDDR7 also rise by 30%, its material cost could approach twice that of a 12GB RTX 5070. To maintain profit margins, its selling price might need to be nearly $100 higher. AI-driven demand is squeezing supply and increasing costs for consumer-grade GPU memory, and the GPU market may face a wave of cost-driven price increases in the coming months.

 

 

NVIDIA May Cut Mid-Range GPU Supply, AMD Plans Price Hike

Due to ongoing tight VRAM supply, NVIDIA is considering reducing the supply of mid-range graphics cards like the RTX 5060 Ti and RTX 5070 Ti in early 2026. Both cards feature 16GB of GDDR7 memory, with market starting prices of approximately $429 and $749, respectively.

 

Supply chain data shows that VRAM delivery lead times have significantly extended from the original 4-8 weeks to 12-16 weeks. As a result, AMD plans to raise the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) for its GPUs in January 2026, with initial estimates pointing to increases of 5% to 10%. Industry analysis indicates that VRAM costs constitute 35% to 40% of a graphics card's bill of materials (BOM), making its price fluctuations a significant factor in final pricing.

 

Market reports further predict that AMD may lead the price increases in January 2026, with NVIDIA potentially following in February, and subsequent hikes could occur "almost monthly." The reports analyze that the combined cost of the GPU core and VRAM accounts for nearly 80% of the total card cost when delivered to board partners. Meanwhile, prices for mainstream DRAM modules like DDR5 have recently multiplied, which could ultimately cause the market prices of some graphics cards to reach double their MSRP. Currently, the RTX 5090 is rumored to be priced near $5,000.

 

In response to the rumors, leading board partners such as ASUS, GIGABYTE, and MSI stated they have not yet received an official supply reduction notification from NVIDIA. Industry players have generally become more conservative in their outlook for the 2026 market, concerned that if mid-range card prices rise due to cost increases, their market appeal and sales volume could face significant challenges.

 

 

Nvidia Plans H200 Shipments to China, AMD MI308 Also Approved

According to Reuters, citing informed sources, NVIDIA plans to initiate shipments of its H200 artificial intelligence chips to Chinese customers before the Lunar New Year in February 2026. The initial shipment is estimated to consist of 5,000 to 10,000 H200 chip modules, equivalent to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips. Sources reveal that NVIDIA intends to use existing inventory to fulfill these first orders. Additionally, NVIDIA has informed customers of plans to increase production capacity for the chip, with order windows for this new capacity expected to open in the second quarter of 2026.

 

Simultaneously, AMD's MI308 AI chip, customized for the Chinese market, has also received export approval. Reports suggest that Alibaba Group is considering purchasing about 40,000 to 50,000 of these chips. At a unit price of approximately $12,000, an order of 50,000 chips would total $6 billion.

 

On a broader product line, NVIDIA's GB300 AI server rack based on the Blackwell architecture is projected to achieve shipments of around 55,000 units in 2025, representing a 129% year-over-year increase. The next-generation Vera Rubin 200 platform is expected to begin shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025, with order visibility for some suppliers extending as far as 2027.

 

Regarding market prospects, data indicates that demand for AI chips in China is growing rapidly, with sales projected to reach $189 billion by 2029. This presents significant opportunities for both international players like NVIDIA and AMD, as well as domestic Chinese AI chip companies such as Huawei and Cambricon. However, uncertainties remain regarding NVIDIA's plan to deliver H200 chips to China, with sources emphasizing that final approval "all depends on government authorization."

 

 

 

 

Passive Components See Price Hikes Up to 30%

The global passive component market is currently experiencing a new wave of price increases driven by both costs and demand. Panasonic has officially notified that it will raise prices for thirty to forty specifications of tantalum capacitors starting February 1, 2026, with increases ranging from 15% to 30%. Prior to this, industry leader Kemet, a subsidiary of Yageo, already raised prices for its T520, T521, and T530 series tantalum capacitors by 20-30% on November 1st, marking its second price adjustment this year. The tantalum capacitor market has an oligopolistic structure, with the three major suppliers—KEMET, AVX, and Vishay—collectively holding nearly 60-70% of the market share.

 

Prices for other categories of passive components are also rising simultaneously. Fenghua Advanced Technology recently implemented price increases across multiple product lines, including raising prices for inductor beads by 5-25%, for full series of silver-electrode varistors and ceramic capacitors by 10-20%, and for thick-film circuit products by 15-30%. Additionally, HeKeTai Electronics increased prices for thick-film chip resistors by 8%-20%, and Fudeming also raised prices for some thick-film resistor products by 8%-20%.

 

The fundamental cause of this widespread price hike is the sharp rise in upstream raw material costs. Since the beginning of this year, silver prices have accumulated a 50% increase, while prices for various key metals such as copper, palladium, tin, bismuth, and cobalt have also continued to climb, imposing significant cost pressure on manufacturers. At the same time, after more than two years of inventory depletion, the market has normalized. Strong demand from areas like AI servers and automotive electronics has further intensified supply-demand tensions, collectively driving this industry-wide upward price trend.

 

 

 

 

Manufacturer Updates

ST

Market Continues Under Pressure Amid Weak Auto and Industrial Demand

STMicroelectronics (STM) continues to see soft overall demand, mainly due to ongoing weakness in automotive and industrial markets. Spot demand currently focuses on products such as power management ICs and EEPROM memory ICs, while general-purpose MCU and automotive-grade component orders remain low. Consumer electronics, however, has shown a bright spot—power management chip orders are growing gradually, supported by wearables and premium smartphones. On the supply side, industrial and automotive demand shows no recovery signs, but lead times have normalized overall, with most products now stable at 12–16 weeks.

 

 

Renesas

Advances Strategic Shift, Weighs Sale of Timing Business and Launches 9600 MT/s DDR5 RCD

Renesas is driving its strategic shift with targeted moves to sharpen focus on automotive, industrial and AI infrastructure markets. In mid-October 2025, media reported the company is considering the sale of its timing (clock) business, valued around $2 billion, to streamline assets and raise funds. On November 12, Renesas launched the industry’s first sixth-generation DDR5 Registering Clock Driver (RCD) with 9600 MT/s speed, setting a new performance standard for AI servers and high-performance computing. Days later, on November 14, leadership changes were announced—including several vice presidents and a co-CTO—to accelerate execution. These steps demonstrate Renesas’ integrated strategy across portfolio refinement, technology leadership, and organizational alignment.

 

 

TI

Order demand is rising, but shortage demand remains soft, with attractive spot pricing available for some models.

Recent market tracking shows TI customer orders have increased, signaling a modest recovery in activity. Shortage expectations and demand remain low, preventing broader supply tightness. Pricing for selected order models has already been adjusted. At the same time, some models in the spot market are now priced attractively, opening up procurement opportunities. Overall, the market shows a mixed picture: order demand is recovering while spot supply is selectively available.

 

 

ADI

Reports Strong Earnings: Q4 Revenue Hits $3.08B, Full-Year Growth Up 17%

Recent market data shows demand for Analog Devices (ADI) is picking up. Price adjustments are anticipated around February 2026, so market players are advised to plan inventory ahead based on projected needs.

The company delivered strong Q4 and fiscal 2025 results. ADI posted Q4 revenue of $3.08 billion, with growth across all end markets—particularly in communications and industrial. Full-year fiscal 2025 revenue reached $11 billion, up 17% year over year.

 

 

Broadcom

With Strong Samsung HBM3E Support, AI and Networking Model Demand Stays Hot

Broadcom's overall product pricing remains stable, with clear growth driven by AI chips and networking equipment. Key supply chain updates indicate Samsung—unable to resolve thermal and yield issues to supply NVIDIA's HBM—has shifted its HBM3E output fully to Broadcom, and shipments have begun. Market analysis suggests Samsung could supply over 50% of Broadcom's HBM needs. This close partnership is expected to boost Broadcom's position in the AI server and custom chip market, especially as demand for high-bandwidth memory surges.

Demand remains strong for specific models targeting network communication and AI data center applications. Focus continues on smart NIC chip BCM57508, high-performance Ethernet switch chip BCM56870A0KFSBG, and switch chips SS24-0B00-02 and SS26-0B00-02.

 

 

Microchip

Microchip faces extended lead times for some MCUs and ongoing tightness in automotive-grade device supply

In December, Microchip avoided widespread shortages, but certain microcontroller lines—especially for industrial and automotive use—remain in high demand, leading to longer delivery times. Lead times are stretching for 8-bit and 16-bit MCUs, as well as for automotive-grade PIC components, prompting earlier ordering.

This stems from limited manufacturing flexibility combined with steady industrial and automotive demand. Automotive demand remains stable, but strict certification and slow restocking continue to keep supply tighter than for general-purpose parts.

 

 

onsemi

Demand Surge Extends Lead Times Sharply, AI Power Chips Remain Tight

onsemi is seeing a sharp rise in demand, largely driven by widespread shortages at Nexperia, which is pushing customers to look for alternatives. There's strong substitution demand for discretes like small-signal MOSFETs, diodes, transistors, and logic ICs, while AI power management chips are still in short supply.

This has significantly extended lead times for onsemi products. Diodes and transistors now take 15–25 weeks, MOSFETs range from 8 to 42 weeks, and ESD protection devices are at 10–22 weeks. The market expects this tightness to continue, with lead times likely to stretch further.

 

 

Infineon

Substitution Demand Drives Spot Shortages for Some Automotive Components

Shortages of select automotive-grade MOSFETs and transistors from vendors like Nexperia and onsemi have moderately boosted demand for compatible Infineon parts. This has tightened spot supply and caused temporary delivery delays for certain items. For instance, the BSC023N and BSC021N series are seeing short-term spot shortages, and their supply-demand outlook requires ongoing attention.

In the server segment, demand trends are mixed. Previously popular parts such as the TDA21472 series have softened lately, likely as customers assess alternatives. Meanwhile, the IR3889 remains in tight supply, with long lead times and steadily rising market prices.

 

 

NXP

Exits GaN 5G PA Market, Closes ECHO Fab, Spot Supply Stabilizes

NXP has announced a major strategic shift, closing its ECHO Fab wafer plant in Chandler, Arizona, and fully exiting GaN-based 5G RF power amplifier manufacturing. This marks a clear pullback from the 5G infrastructure chip segment.

Spot demand for NXP parts remains soft this month. Yet as supply and demand rebalance, spot inventories have fallen toward healthier levels, with some common models now sufficiently stocked.

 

 

Xilinx

Dominates High-End FPGA Market as Local Players Rise, Diversifying Supply Chain

he FPGA market keeps growing, with Xilinx holding a strong position in high-end areas like data centers, 5G, and AI. At the same time, the global FPGA supply chain is diversifying, driven by domestic makers such as Unigroup Tongfang and Anlogic. These firms now offer reliable options in mid- to low-end markets like industrial control and consumer electronics, giving customers more supply chain flexibility and resilience.

This “high-end lead, mid/low-end spread” trend provides key guidance for industry players in choosing parts and planning procurement. The sector should also keep watching advances like Xilinx’s Versal platform for AI.

 

 

Panasonic

Panasonic Japan Lifts Prices on Some POSCAP Tantalum Capacitors by 15%-30%

At the end of November, Panasonic Japan notified customers of a price increase on selected models of its POSCAP polymer tantalum capacitors. The rise is notable, ranging from 15% to 30%. These capacitors are widely used in high-performance computing applications like AI servers, meaning the change will likely affect costs further down the supply chain.

 

 

 

 

Spot Market Insights

Memory

eMMC / NOR Flash:

The eMMC market is seeing broad price increases, exceeding earlier expectations in both speed and scale. Buying sentiment is strong, with spot market offers being snapped up quickly. Most of the earlier low-cost stock has been cleared, and market outlook remains bullish.

• Supply Analysis: Supply from original manufacturers is tightening. Kioxia/SanDisk eMMC channel supply is extremely scarce, with only a few high-priced offers available. Prices for small-capacity NOR/NAND Flash are rising across the board. Official price increases from makers like Winbond and MXIC have created a chaotic quoting environment, with large gaps between asking and actual transaction prices.
• Key Vendor Update: MXIC is leading the price hikes and has extended standard lead times to 8-10 weeks. This signals that supply tightness is likely to continue for the mid-term.  

 

 

DRAM

The DRAM market shows a clear split. DDR4 and LPDDR prices are surging, while DDR3 remains under pressure.

• DDR4: Prices are rising fast, with all major brands hitting new highs. Demand is strong, especially for 4Gb and 8Gb parts, which sell quickly once available. The 16Gb segment is also climbing due to limited supply, with sellers holding back stock. Nanya's 8Gb products are leading the price increases, pointing to possible strategy or supply changes.
• DDR3: Out of step with mainstream demand, DDR3 prices are edging lower. High inventory at channels and module makers is keeping prices soft.
• LPDDR: This segment is seeing the sharpest price hikes amid severe shortages. Prices have nearly doubled in the past two weeks across the lineup. Even as Micron releases some stock, its quotes have jumped sharply, showing tight control from suppliers.
• Outlook: DDR4 4Gb/8Gb/16Gb remains in focus. The supply–demand gap is unlikely to close soon, keeping prices strong.

 

 

Server DDR4 & DDR5

The market is a typical "seller's market", with supply shortage as the core challenge.

• Supply & Demand: DIMM channel offers are thin. High-capacity products (e.g., 96Gb, 128Gb) are hard to find at quoted prices. Tighter allocations from suppliers continue to limit upstream shipments.

• Price Trend: Amid supply concerns, prices continue to rise steadily. Demand from mainstream platforms is driving a clear uptrend for 64Gb products. High-capacity modules remain scarce and are expected to stay tight in the long term.

 

 

 

Storage

HDD

Demand is focused on high-capacity enterprise drives, while supply remains cautious.

• Demand: Seagate enterprise drives (8T-24T) are in strong demand, driven by data center and cloud expansion.
• Supply: Most suppliers are holding back stock, releasing only small batches. Large-volume lots (500+ units) are hard to find, leading to higher per-drive prices for bigger orders.
• Vendor Update: Western Digital has paused new orders for a price review, which could tighten supply further and push prices higher.

 

 

SSD

Prices are rising steadily, with brands taking different approaches.

• Samsung's consumer SSD prices continue to climb. Channel inventory is low but not yet critically short.
• Solidigm products are becoming more price-competitive, likely a strategy to capture market share.
• The consumer segment is more price-sensitive, seeing larger increases than enterprise products.

 

 

 

CPU

Mobile Platforms

• Demand is stable. Intel's low-power N-series (N95/N97/N150) remain highly sought after. Prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with spot market trades conducted in small batches. 

 

 

PC Platforms

• Market activity is muted. Prices for Intel's 12th-14th Gen Core processors are stable, reflecting weak end-user demand and a lack of large-volume orders.

 

 

Server Platforms

• Demand still focuses on Intel's 3rd/4th Gen products. Prices are slightly up, supported by replacement demand and inventory consumption, but overall trading volumes are limited.

 

 

 

Network & Storage Controllers

RAID Controllers

• Supply for Broadcom's product line remains tight. High-performance models like the 9560-16i and 9540-8i face severe shortages and high prices. Some supply relief is expected by late December. Market sources confirm Broadcom has implemented an ~18% price increase on key products such as the 9560-8i and extended standard lead times, passing cost pressures downstream.

 

 

NICs

• High-end products like NVIDIA's MCX75310AAS-NEAT are under strict channel allocation. Limited supply continues to challenge fulfillment for AI servers and other high-end applications.